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The evaluation of landslide hazard in seismic areas is based on a deterministic analysis to define the stability of the sites. However, deterministic analysis is not able to consider various uncertainties in the analysis process. This paper focuses on the results established by the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and extends the probabilistic landslide hazard analysis to consider the uncertainties of opposing ground deformations and strength. The work studies the areas between Nibbiano and SantErasmo inhabited centres in the Camerino municipality located in central Italy. The current state of the areas shows dangerous conditions for the building structures. In fact, all constructions present evidence of damage caused by both the 2016 earthquake and slope instability. The studies, carried out through careful geological survey and detailed geophysical investigations, are performed to define the geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological characteristics of the areas and also to run a new analysis aimed to define the material stress-strain behavior. Both inhabited Centers are located on debris deposits with highly variable thicknesses. The key point regards the definition of the depth of unstable mass, its position and its extension. Therefore, this contribution aims to summarize the knowledge of the landslide phenomenon that affected the area, trying to interpret its evolution with new field investigations. Indeed, during the first step, related to the geological and geomorphological detailed surveys, a remarkable geological model was obtained to better interpret the slope dynamics in relation to the structures of this section of the ridge. This model was also confirmed by the geophysical investigations. The study involves a more detailed definition of the landslide perimeter. Indeed, to analyze the phenomenon, it was necessary to study both the local seismic amplification with finite element 2D simulations and the slope stability conditions with finite 3D difference simulation.
Mangifesta et al. (Mon,) studied this question.