Mapping the potential habitat suitability and opportunities of bush encroacher species in Southern Africa: a case study of the SteamBioAfrica project

Senegalia mellifera (Benth) Seigler while 43.9% of the total area is suitable for Dichrostachys cinerea , and 37.87% of the total area is currently suitable for Terminalia sericea . In the future scenarios, the habitat suitability increases for all three species compared to the current state. The unsuitable areas decrease in all the proposed scenarios with respect to the present, predicting a shrub expansion in the future throughout southern Africa. Furthermore, our results imply that Senegalia mellifera is the most potentially affected by bush encroachment in future changes, with a larger distribution area in future scenarios. These findings are supported by many studies, which indicate the probable increase of woody cover and loss of grasslands. Temperature and precipitation patterns are the main drivers behind the distribution of these bush encroachers, increasing or decreasing the competitiveness of these species according to these variables and their phenotypic plasticity. The increase in habitat suitability occurs throughout the case study, but there is a clear trend of shrub expansion towards the south of the case study. The change maps show a pattern of shrub movement towards South Africa and Botswana. This would fit with climate predictions for South Africa, which predict a decrease in rainfall in the east and north of the country, being more suitable for shrub competitive species.