Comparing caloric restriction regimens for effective weight management in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials have confirmed the effectiveness of four prevalent caloric restriction regimens in reducing obesity-related health risks. However, there is no consensus on the optimal regimen for weight management in adults. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane CENTRAL up to January 15, 2024, for randomized controlled trials (RCT) involving adults, evaluating the weight-loss effects of alternate day fasting (ADF), short-term fasting (STF), time-restricted eating (TRE), and continuous energy restriction (CER). The primary outcome was body weight, with secondary outcomes including BMI, fat mass, lean mass, waist circumference, fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, and adverse events. Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted, ranking regimens using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve and the probability of being the best. Study quality was assessed using the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis tool. RESULTS: Data from 47 RCTs (representing 3363 participants) were included. ADF showed the most significant body weight loss (Mean difference (MD): -3.42; 95% Confidence interval (CI): -4.28 to -2.55), followed by TRE (MD: -2.25; 95% CI: -2.92 to -1.59). STF (MD: -1.87; 95% CI: -3.32 to -0.56) and CER (MD: -1.59; 95% CI: -2.42 to -0.79) rank third and fourth, respectively. STF lead to decline in lean mass (MD: -1.26; 95% CI: -2.16, -0.47). TRE showed benefits on fasting glucose (MD: -2.98; 95% CI: -4.7, -1.26). Subgroup analysis revealed all four caloric restriction regimens likely lead to modest weight loss after 1-3 months, with ADF ranked highest, but by 4-6 months, varying degrees of weight regain occur, particularly with CER, while interventions lasting 7-12 months may result in effective weight loss, with TRE potentially ranking first during both the 4-6 months and 7-12 months periods. ADF showing fewer and shorter-lasting physical symptoms. CONCLUSION: All four included regiments were effective in reducing body weight, with ADF likely having the most significant impact. Each regimen likely leads to modest weight loss after 1-3 months, followed by weight regain by 4-6 months. However, interventions lasting 7-12 months achieve greater weight loss overall. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42022382478.