Ecological study measuring the association between conflict, environmental factors, and annual global cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis incidence (2005–2022)

Background Cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (CL/ML) cause significant morbidity globally and are vulnerable to changes from environmental events and conflict. In this ecological study, we aim to measure the associations between annual CL/ML cases, conflict intensity, and environmental factors between 2005 and 2022 globally. Methods We pulled annual case data from the WHO for 52 nations that had conflict intensity scores (ranging from 1–10) from the Bertelsmann Transformation Index. Using Earth observation tools, we gathered temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and humidity data, in addition to data on annual estimates of population, internal displacement, and GDP. We fit a negative binomial generalized additive model with a random nation-level intercept. Results Conflict was positively associated with increased CL/ML across the studied nations (IRR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01–1.16, p = 0.02). Given this, intense conflict (a score of ten) was associated with over double the risk of CL/ML compared to the lowest conflict levels (score of one). We also identified a curvilinear relationship between mean temperature and cases, as well as between vegetation level and cases. Each had small pockets of significant increased and decreased risk, respectively. Larger mean humidity ranges were negatively associated with cases. Importantly, the relationship between conflict intensity and cases was mediated by displacement. Discussion Conflict is significantly associated with increased CL/ML cases. This is especially true at higher conflict levels, marking when conflict turns violent. The destruction of critical infrastructure (e.g., that related to healthcare, water, and sanitation) often seen during conflict could drive this association. Such environments can be hospitable to sandflies and can heighten individuals’ vulnerability through increased malnutrition, poverty, and displacement. Understanding this relationship is crucial for public health preparedness and response, especially as conflicts become increasingly violent and protracted.