Blood Pressure Trajectories During Young Adulthood and Cardiovascular Events in Later Life

Abstract Background Studying the association between blood pressure (BP) trajectories during young adulthood and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can provide insights into how long-term BP patterns in early life influence the development of CVD later in life. Methods We pooled data from two US cohorts (CARDIA, FHS). We used latent growth curve models to identify distinct BP trajectory groups during ages 18-39 years. We then used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the associations between BP trajectories and CVD events (composite of coronary heart disease CHD, stroke, and heart failure HF) after age 40 years. Results We included 6,579 participants and identified four distinct systolic BP trajectory groups during young adulthood. During a median follow-up of 18.2 years after age 40 years, 213 CHD, 139 stroke, 120 HF, and 400 composite CVD events occurred. Individuals in an elevated-increasing vs. low-stable systolic BP trajectory during young adulthood was associated with a higher risk of CVD after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors, with hazard ratios (95% CI) of 3.25 (1.63, 6.46) for CHD, 3.92 (1.63, 9.43) for stroke, 8.30 (2.97, 23.17) for HF, and 3.91 (2.38, 6.41) for composite CVD outcomes. Adding BP trajectory to BP at baseline improved model discrimination for all outcomes (changes in Harrell’s C-index 0.0084 to 0.0192). Conclusions An elevated-increasing BP trajectory during young adulthood is associated with a higher risk of CVD later in life, highlighting the importance of maintaining a low-stable BP trajectory throughout the young adulthood period for prevention of CVD in later life.