Cascading Failure and Resilience of Urban Rail Transit Stations under Flood Conditions: A Case Study of Shanghai Metro

The increasing frequency of urban flooding, driven by global climate change, poses significant threats to the safety and resilience of urban rail transit systems. This study systematically examines the cascading failure processes and resilience of these networks under flood conditions, with a specific focus on the Shanghai Metro. A comprehensive resilience evaluation model was developed by integrating geographic information, static network characteristics, and dynamic passenger flow indicators. This study employs an improved Coupled Map Lattice (CML) model to simulate cascading failures by considering the coupling effects of station centrality, geographic elevation, and passenger flow dynamics. The results indicate that stations with higher degrees of centrality are more likely to trigger rapid cascading failures across the network. However, incorporating dynamic passenger flow and geographic elevation data helps mitigate these effects, emphasizing the need for multi-dimensional resilience strategies. The findings provide valuable insights for urban transit management, offering a scientific foundation for developing targeted disaster response strategies to enhance network resilience against floods. This study advances our understanding of the vulnerability of urban rail transit systems and offers practical guidance for improving disaster preparedness in urban transportation infrastructure.