Electoral System Statistics Indicators: Status and Development

The development of a democratic, socially oriented state in the Russian Federation, the formation of civil society, the formation of a multi-party system, changes in the right field of the electoral system lead to transformations in the electoral process, to the development of new channels of communication between the population and the state (for example, online electronic voting); to the need to revise the indicators of political statistics and its branches, one of which is the statistics of the electoral system. In this study provides the author’s definition of the subject of electoral system statistics as a science, presents a basic system of electoral system statistics indicators and sources of statistical data for their determination. The main methods of statistics of the electoral system are methods of statistical theory, social statistics, methods of visualizing statistical data, both primary and results of statistical studies of the structure and dynamics of the number of participants in the electoral process and its results, quantitative measurement and assessment of cause-and-effect relationships between factors influencing the course of the electoral process and its results. The results of studies of the dynamics of the size of the electorate in the Russian Federation (based on the results of the referendum) for 2016-2023 are presented, the results of an analysis of the dynamics of the party structure in the elections to the State Duma (State Duma) of the Russian Federation of the VII and VIII convocations, the relationship between the dynamics of the number of public associations and the size of the electorate in “in a broad sense” based on a small sample for 2016-2020, which allows us to judge the trends in the development of civil society in the Russian Federation and its impact on the electoral process. The obtained patterns can be used to build short-term forecasts of changes in the size of the electorate, the number of its public associations, including political parties. The author sees the prospects for the development of this research in expanding the possibilities of statistical modeling of the relationships between indicators of electoral system statistics and civil society statistics; in the use of cluster analysis techniques in constructing spatial models of electoral preferences.