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This study presents a predictive time series analysis of malaria incidence in India, utilizing a two-decade dataset. Malaria, caused by Plasmodium species and transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, poses a significant public health challenge in the WHO South-East Asia Region. We employed linear regression and ARIMA modeling techniques to analyze historical incidence data, ensuring rigorous data cleaning for accuracy. Results indicate a statistically significant declining trend in malaria cases, with projections suggesting continued decreases in malaria cases over the next five years. These findings highlight the effectiveness of current malaria elimination strategies in India and underscore the necessity for sustained public health interventions. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the importance of data-driven approaches for understanding and forecasting malaria trends, contributing to the goal of malaria eradication by 2030.
Ami Soni (Sat,) studied this question.