Patterns of leaf, flower and fruit phenology and environmental relationships in a seasonal tropical forest in the Indian Eastern Himalaya

Tree phenology plays an important role in determining the structure and function of tropical forest communities. However, there are few long-term studies on tree phenology from South Asia. We monitored 716 trees of 54 species monthly from 2011 to 2023 for leaf flush, flowering, and fruiting in Pakke Tiger Reserve, Arunachal Pradesh, India. We examined monthly patterns in the percentage of species and trees in leaf flush, flower and fruit and characterized phenological seasonality using circular statistics. Flowering periodicity was classified using Fourier analysis and we examined the relationships between phenological activity and temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and daylength using GAMLSS. Leaf flush and flowering were moderately seasonal, peaking in the warm dry season months of March to May. Fruiting patterns and their seasonality differed among dispersal modes. At the community level and for bird-dispersed species, fruiting was bimodal and relatively aseasonal, peaking in April and October. The highly seasonal fruiting of mammal-dispersed species peaked in October, while that of mechanically-dispersed species was bimodal and concentrated in the dry season months. The majority of species (78.13%) and trees (51.17%) flowered annually. Daylength, solar radiation and minimum temperature had significant nonlinear effects on phenology. This indicated the existence of narrow ranges of optimal climatic conditions for phenology, which could be affected by climate change. Our study emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring to rigorously quantify phenological patterns, particularly in the context of rapid global change.