Investigating the Future of Freight Transport Low Carbon Technologies Market Acceptance across Different Regions

Fighting climate change has become a major task worldwide. One of the key energy sectors to emit greenhouse gases is transportation. Therefore, long term strategies all over the world have been set up to reduce on-road combustion emissions. In this context, the road freight sector faces significant challenges in decarbonization, driven by its limited availability of low-emission fuels and commercialized zero-emission vehicles compared with its high energy demand. In this work, we develop the Mobility and Energy Transportation Analysis (META) Model, a python-based optimization model to quantify the impact of transportation projected policies on freight transport by projecting conventional and alternative fuel technologies market acceptance as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Along with introducing e-fuels as an alternative refueling option for conventional vehicles, META investigates the market opportunities of Mobile Carbon Capture (MCC) until 2050. To accurately assess this technology, a techno-economic analysis is essential to compare MCC abatement cost to alternative decarbonization technologies such as electric trucks. The novelty of this work comes from the detailed cost categories taken into consideration in the analysis, including intangible costs associated with heavy-duty technologies, such as recharging/refueling time, cargo capacity limitations, and consumer acceptance towards emerging technologies across different regions. Based on the study results, the competitive total cost of ownership (TCO) and marginal abatement cost (MAC) values of MCC make it an economically promising alternative option to decarbonize the freight transport sector. Both in the KSA and EU, MCC options could reach greater than 50% market shares of all ICE vehicle sales, equivalent to a combined 35% of all new sales shares by 2035.