Predicting the geographical potential distribution of species Opisina arenosella Walker in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt model

Abstract As global warming increases with the frequency of extreme weather, the distribution of species is inevitably affected. Among them, highly damaging invasive species are of particular concern. Being able to effectively predict the geographic distribution of invasive species and future distribution trends is a key entry point for their control. Opisina arenosella Walker is an invasive species, and its ability to live on the backs of foliage and generate canals to hide adds to the difficulty of control. In this paper, the current and future distributions of O. arenosella under three typical emission scenarios in 2050 and 2090 are projected based on the MaxEnt model combining 19 bioclimatic variables. Filter through the variables to find the four key environment variables: BIO 1, BIO 6, BIO 11 and BIO 4. The results show that O. arenosella is distributed only in the eight provinces of Tibet, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangxi, Taiwan, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Hainan in the southeastern region. Its high suitability area is concentrated in Taiwan and Hainan. In the long run, highly suitable areas will continue to increase in size, while moderately suitable areas and poorly suitable areas will decrease to varying degrees. This paper aims to provide theoretical references for the control of O. arenosella .