Supraglacial lake evolution and its drivers in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.