Out in the cold and warm! An antagonistic niche evolution of a global non-native shrub

Climatic similarities between native and invaded areas are fundamental conditions for the establishment and dissemination of invasive non-native species. Preventive measures to indicate potential areas for biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risks. This measure assumes that species maintain their environmental conditions conserved between native and invaded areas. However, some species can quickly change their realized niche when exposed to previously unexperienced environmental conditions. Here, we distinguish between these types of changes in the climatic niche of the Nicotiana glauca , a global non-native species, employing multivariate analyses to compare niche overlap between the native (Argentina and Bolivia) and invaded areas (North America, Mediterranean, Northeast South America, Southern Africa and Australia). We found evidence that the realized niche occupied by N. glauca in its native area does not overlap with the invaded area in the Caatinga (Northeast Brazil) and the Mediterranean regions. The niche in these invaded areas exhibits both warmer climates with lower daily and annual temperature amplitude (Caatinga) and colder, drier climates (Mediterranean). Relevant portions of the realized niche in the invaded areas of N. glauca in the Mediterranean and the Caatinga regions expanded compared to the climatic space of the native area, suggesting the species enlarged its realized niche in these invaded locations. Therefore, N. glauca has the ability to inhabit niches across a diverse climatic range that cannot be solely predicted based on the native distribution, owing to the evolution of niche. Thus, due to its broad climatic plasticity, populations of N. glauca worldwide should be regarded as a potential threat to biodiversity conservation by scientists and government environmental agencies. Finally, we suggest that when using predictive methods to identify potential areas for invasive non-native species, both invaded and native climatic spaces should be carefully considered.