Prospects for Trump's Second Term Foreign Strategy and Alliance Policy through the Analysis of the First Term: Focused on Implications for South Korea

This paper aims to analyze the foreign policy of the Trump administration during its first and second terms and propose response strategies for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense regarding major issues within the U.S.-ROK alliance. Focusing on key alliance concerns such as defense cost-sharing, the stationing of U.S. forces in Korea, the transfer of wartime operational control, extended deterrence, North Korea policy, and trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, this study compares and contrasts the policies of Trump's first and second terms. The analysis covers demands for increased defense cost-sharing, the presence of U.S. forces in Korea, the transfer of wartime operational control, extended deterrence, North Korea policy, and U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation during Trump's first term, and predicts policy changes in the second term. Based on these predictions, the paper proposes strategic responses for the Ministry of National Defense. The key findings of this study are as follows: First, demands for increased defense cost-sharing are likely to continue into Trump's second term. Second, there is a possibility of a gradual reduction in the number of U.S. forces stationed in Korea over the mid to long term. Third, the transfer of wartime operational control is likely to be expedited, and extended deterrence may be reduced despite North Korean provocations. Fourth, a top-down approach to North Korea policy is expected to persist, and U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation will likely be strengthened as part of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Based on these predictions, the study suggests several response strategies for the Ministry of National Defense. These include contributing to the alliance through increased national defense spending instead of higher defense cost-sharing, adopting a mid-level posture similar to that of Japan, respecting existing agreements regarding the transfer of wartime operational control, pursuing alternative extended deterrence measures, enhancing U.S.-ROK communication for thorough denuclearization, and strengthening U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation within the Indo-Pacific strategy. The study also proposes the adoption of a lattice-like strategy specific to South Korea. The methodological limitations of this study include the fact that the Trump administration's policies are merely predicted and do not fully account for variables in the actual policy implementation process. Furthermore, it is challenging to entirely predict policy shifts based on President Trump's personal inclinations and changes in international affairs. Future research should focus on a detailed analysis of the policies actually implemented by the Trump administration in its second term and develop more specific and practical response strategies for each issue within the U.S.-ROK alliance. Additionally, to ensure the long-term development of the alliance, further research should explore ways to enhance cooperation and communication between the allied nations and build a strategic partnership based on mutual trust.