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This study evaluates CMIP6 global climate models projections for municipalities in the Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR)in three future periods: short-term (2015-2044), medium-term (2045-2074), and long-term (2075-2100), for two emission scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Using data from ACESS-ESM1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, INM-CM5, TaiESM1, and UKESM1-0-LL, a correlation was established with the historical observations provided by the Daily Gridded Meteorological Variables in Brazil. Bias correction was applied to the models using the Quantile Mapping method to normalize the climatological data, resulting in satisfactory adjustments. After correction, the data demonstrated greater consistency and revealed a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, with a greater impact in the coldest months, suggesting a gradual warming of the region. Futhermore, a tendency of reduced precipitation was observed, particularly in the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), which could affect water resource management and agriculture. This study contributes to understanding future climate conditions in municipalities of the RMR, providing information to address climate and sustainability challenges in the region and highlights the importance of applying bias corrections and considering multiple climate models to obtain more accurate and reliable projections.
Farias et al. (Thu,) studied this question.