Risks and challenges to the implementation of the goals of preserving the number and simple reproduction of the Russian population (part 1)

One of the national development goals in Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 is "preservation of the population, health and well-being of people" (Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of July 21, 2020 No. 474) and "increase of the total birth rate to 1.7" (Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2018 No. 204). However, for the fifth year in a row, the population of Russia has been declining - at the beginning of 2023 it numbered 146.4 million people, having decreased by 0.4% over the year. The attrition trend has resumed since 2018, and even without taking into account losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic and events related to the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, it would continue in the coming years, as increasingly more or less realistic demographic projections, including medium and low variant of forecast calculations of Rosstat. One of the challenges of modern society is the transformation of the labor market. Balancing work, motherhood, and updating your knowledge to meet changing demands is challenging. In order to make it easier for women to make a decision about the birth of a child, to continue their career as a mother, and to increase their income, a lot is already being done in Russia today. However, Rosstat's forecasts and experts' calculations show that with the above targets and current measures, it is extremely difficult to ensure natural growth by 2025. To achieve sustainable natural growth, it is necessary to increase the total fertility rate to 2 births per woman by 2030, the number of employed women and, in general, the well-being of families. The research consists of two articles. In the first article, the author reveals in detail the relevance of the chosen topic, provides static data of the main demographic processes, reviews the literature on the problem under consideration, provides hypotheses and research methods, identifies and reveals some current trends in fertility in Russia: the low-child birth rate; differentiation of the structure of the decline in the total fertility rate.