Multiple risk markers for increases in depression symptoms across two years: Evidence from the reward positivity and the error-related negativity

Both a blunted Reward Positivity (RewP) and Error-Related Negativity (ERN) have been associated with depression. Associations between these neural markers and depression have been observed cross-sectionally, but evidence that they can prospectively predict the development of, or increases in, symptoms of depression is more limited. In this study, we collected EEG data from 157 young adults at a baseline visit (T1), using the Doors and Flanker Tasks to elicit the RewP and the ERN respectively. Participants also reported on symptoms of depression at T1, and multiple times across two academic years (T2 – T8). Using a multilevel model with the RewP and the ERN as predictors, we found that the RewP predicted future symptoms of depression, while controlling for symptoms of depression at T1, such that a blunted RewP at baseline predicted higher depressive symptoms later. In our data, however, the ERN was not a significant predictor of increases in depression symptoms. These findings replicate previous work showing the RewP prospectively predicted increases in depression, and further suggest the specificity of this association. Results support the utility of the RewP as a neurophysiological marker that can help clarify the etiology of depression and inform treatment planning. • RewP and ERN were simultaneously considered as depression risk markers • A blunted RewP at baseline predicted greater future depression symptoms • The ERN did not significantly predict increases in depression symptoms over time • Findings suggest the specificity of the association between the RewP and depression