Russia’s Transition to a “Modern” Economic Growth Regime: Revisiting Modernization Concepts

An important challenge in economics is explaining the factors that drive transformation processes in economic systems, often resulting in complex and contradictory structural changes. One notable historical example is the late Russian Empire’s transition from a Malthusian regime to a “modern” regime of economic growth in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. This article explores theoretical and methodological approaches from recent economic history literature concerning Russia’s role in modernization and catch-up development. By employing tools from economics and related social sciences, such as sociology and demography, the study analyzes empirical evidence grounded in quantitative data. The study contributes to economic theory by reevaluating the modernization paradigm and the “modern regime of economic growth.” It reinterprets A. Gerschenkron’s concept of economic development in “backward” countries, highlighting the role of human capital accumulation, challenging linear and pessimistic views of material well-being, and emphasizing the significance of non-material aspects in well-being dynamics. Drawing on Russian evidence, the study also partially confirms models in unified growth theory, such as the relationship between human capital accumulation and the demographic transition, where the former is shown to have preceded the latter. Additionally, the analysis identifies a bell-shaped pattern in economic inequality dynamics: S. Kuznets’ cyclical model of individual income inequality and J. Williamson’s observation that the downward phase of spatial inequality in Russia began earlier than in reference countries due to the growing role of central government investment in education. The article concludes by identifying promising directions for future research, particularly concerning the “Great Divergence” and the long-term dynamics of productivity and well-being gaps between Western Europe and East Asia.