Comparing surface currents near the mouth of three bays along the U.S. East Coast: Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and New York Bay

Abstract Monthly surface currents at 2 km resolution near the mouths of three U.S. east coast bays were obtained from high-frequency radars (Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar, CODAR) during 2012–2024. The currents near these bays, the Chesapeake Bay (CB), the Delaware Bay (DB) and the New York Bay (NB) were analyzed to infer similarity and differences, as well as potential common forcing from regional and basin-scale factors. The contribution to flow variability from local and remote forcing is evaluated by comparing surface currents with (a) river discharges into each bay, (b) with local and regional winds, and (c) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that surface flow variability near the mouth of the bays is linked with all three driving factors. The three bays often show similar flow patterns not only of the seasonal cycle, but also during extreme weather events. For example, increased surface flow into the bays from the Atlantic Ocean is seen when hurricanes are observed offshore in the fall, and increased surface flow from the bays is seen during winter storms. During positive NAO phases, eastward flow from all three bays increased due to intensified westerly winds, while during negative NAO phases flow decreased with weakening winds in the region. River discharges into the bays increased during 2012–2019 but decreased during 2019–2024. This change in river discharge trend was especially large in the CB, resulting in a change in trends of the surface currents. Monthly currents of each bay are only weakly correlated with the monthly river flow ( R ~ 0.2–0.3; P < 0.05), while the seasonal cycles of rivers and currents have higher correlations ( R ~ 0.6–0.7). Local winds show high correlations with the monthly currents ( R ~ 0.75) with the current direction ~ 45° to the right of the wind, as expected from Ekman theory. However, contributions to current variability from regional and remote factors cannot be ignored. The results demonstrate the complex nature of the currents near the mouth of bays since multiple drivers, including estuarine, coastal and open ocean dynamics contribute to the observed variability.