New development paths through green hydrogen?: An ex-ante assessment of structure and agency in Chile and Namibia

Many developing countries seek to participate in the emerging global green hydrogen industry, not only as exporters of green hydrogen and its derivatives to Europe and the Far East, but also to use it for their own energy security and green transition. They hope that new development paths will lead to late-comer industrialisation. This article assesses corresponding prospects in Chile and Namibia, two countries that pursue particularly ambitious plans on green hydrogen. To better understand the chances for path creation ex ante, the authors draft an innovative framework that refers to context factors – that is, structure – and three types of transformative agency. Against the backdrop of information from secondary sources and a series of expert interviews, they uncover sound institutional reforms and initiatives of place-based leadership to promote the green hydrogen industry. However, Chile and Namibia lack Schumpeterian entrepreneurship. It therefore remains to be seen whether new development paths will be inclusive, contributing to in-country development. Typical downsides of extractive industries in resource peripheries might occur. • Green hydrogen production may lead to new development paths in developing countries. • Path formation depends not only on structure, but also on transformative agency. • Chile and Namibia benefit from place-based leadership and institutional reforms. • There is little Schumpeterian entrepreneurship, which hampers inclusive development.