Analysis of the Climate Vulnerability of Summer Vegetable-Producing Households in the Trishuli-Narayani River Corridor, Nepal

The impact of climate change on agricultural livelihoods is significant, particularly for summer vegetable growers in the Trishuli-Narayani River corridor of Nepal, which includes the Chitwan, Dhading, and Nuwakot districts. A survey was conducted with 300 farmers—100 from each district—using vulnerability assessment tools that included 57 indicators: 18 for exposure, 17 for sensitivity, and 21 for adaptive capacity. Finally, principal component analysis was performed with normalized data to assess vulnerability across districts. Our study revealed significant variations in vulnerability. Chitwan exhibited moderate vulnerability (index range: -4.9 to +5.8) because of better access to resources and infrastructure, enhancing its adaptive capacity. Dhading faced greater vulnerability (-5.7 to +7.1) because of a combination of high exposure to climate hazards and lower adaptive capacity. However, in Nuwakot, it was found an extended range of vulnerability indices (-4.2 to +7.3) among summer vegetable farmers. The above results summarize the need for specific interventions in each district. Dhading, with a high number of vulnerable farmers, may require more significant support in allocating resources and capacity building. The Nuwakot district should focus on addressing internal disparities and ensuring access to resources and infrastructure development for all farmers. This study highlights the importance of localized, context-specific adaptation plans to support the resilience of agricultural communities facing climate risks. This underscores the effectiveness of a multidimensional vulnerability assessment approach in agricultural contexts. Future research could explore the most effective methods for capacity strengthening and investigate ways to encourage the adoption of climate-resilient cultivation practices.