The U.S. Biodiesel Outlook: A Pathway Toward Sustainability

Policies to support renewable fuels are associated with economic and environmental sustainability in the United States and relate to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals. Consequently, these fuels have been subject to scientific scrutiny and public debate; however, new developments in biomass-based diesel can overturn past understandings and create new trends and questions. An applied economic model of these fuels, their feedstocks, and related markets is used to project volumes and associated GHG emissions into the medium-term future. Results suggest a growing use of renewable diesel that directly displaces diesel and some recovery in biodiesel use, a near-substitute fuel. Yellow grease (used cooking oil)-based feedstock usage rises, while soybean and similar oil use remain stable. The expansion of renewable diesel made from yellow grease is associated with lower GHG emissions given the regulatory settings, but these projections also raise questions about the implications for environmental and economic sustainability.