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The ARIMA model was found to be independent of errors and a perfect fit, with a high R-squared value of 0.764 and a p-value of 0.410, indicating that the model's predictions aligned well with the observed data. The model predicted an increase in the number of HIV incidence cases over the coming years (2023-2026), potentially suggesting a worsening situation. However, it is important to interpret these predictions with caution and consider other factors that may influence the incidence of HIV in reality.
Besong et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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