The impact of causation and effectuation decision-making logics on de-internationalization strategies of small- and medium-sized export firms

This study investigates the relationships between causation and effectuation decision-making logics and multiple dimensions of de-internationalization among Thai manufacturing export firms. Although existing research has explored internationalization processes, the decision-making dynamics underlying market withdrawal remain underexplored, particularly in emerging economy contexts. Using survey data from 129 Thai exporters and employing partial least squares structural equation modeling, this study examines how causation and different dimensions of effectuation influence various aspects of de-internationalization, including product, market, operational, and time dimensions. The findings demonstrate that the experimentation dimension of effectuation exhibits significant positive associations with all dimensions of de-internationalization, indicating its central role in market withdrawal decisions. Causation demonstrates significant negative relationships with both market and operational dimensions of de-internationalization, indicating that firms employing more systematic planning approaches are less likely to reduce their market presence or operational commitment. Interestingly, the flexibility dimension of effectuation exhibits a significant negative relationship with the time dimension, suggesting that more flexible firms complete their de-internationalization process more quickly. The study contributes to international business theory by demonstrating that different dimensions of effectuation have varying impacts on de-internationalization decisions and that market withdrawal is not simply a reversal of internationalization but a complex process influenced by different strategic approaches. For practitioners, the findings suggest the value of maintaining an experimental mindset while recognizing that systematic planning and experimental approaches are not mutually exclusive. The study provides important insights for understanding how firms navigate international market withdrawal decisions in emerging economies and offers directions for future research in this critical area of international business.