Development and validation of a score model for predicting the risk of first esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage and mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Aims Esophagogastric variceal bleeding, especially first variceal hemorrhage, represents a challenging complication in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and its presence significantly herald poor patient prognosis. The stratification system for the risk of first variceal hemorrhage and mortality has not been validated in patients with HCC. We aimed to develop and validate a simple score for the prediction of initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC.Methods This multicenter retrospective-prospective study included HCC patients at three tertiary hospitals in China from January 2016 to December 2023. The bleeding following endoscopy for hepatocellular carcinoma (BFE-HCC) score was constructed by the least absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) regression combined with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performance of the score model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, the 再现性 of the results was further verified in an independent external cohort.Results We recruited 351 patients from three centers (median age 56 years, 85.5% male and 83.5% with cirrhosis), 56.6% patients presented high-risk (HR) varices, and 35% patients experienced variceal bleeding. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that the presence of cirrhosis, a history of acute variceal bleeding (AVB), Child-Pugh score, ALBI score, tumor size and portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) Vp4 were independent predictors of HR varices. The BFE-HCC is composed of six variables: white blood cell count, HR varices, Child-Pugh score, HCC therapy modality, Vp4, and tumor stage. The area under the curve (AUC) of BFE-HCC was 0.82, and the calibration plots and decision curve analysis exhibited outstanding performance compared with the MELD, ALBI, and Child-Pugh scores. In addition, Patients with BFE-HCC ≥ 4 were at increased risk of mortality (P<0.01).Conclusions The BFE-HCC score is hopeful to predict initial variceal bleeding and mortality in patients with HCC, offering a promising tool for prognostic assessment and treatment decisions.