Prediction of Drought Thresholds Triggering Winter Wheat Yield Losses in the Future Based on the CNN-LSTM Model and Copula Theory: A Case Study of Henan Province

As global warming progresses, quantifying drought thresholds for crop yield losses is crucial for food security and sustainable agriculture. Based on the CNN-LSTM model and Copula function, this study constructs a conditional probability framework for yield losses under future climate change. It analyzes the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and winter wheat yield, assesses the vulnerability of winter wheat in various regions to drought stress, and quantifies the drought thresholds under climate change. The results showed that (1) SPEI in Zhoukou, Sanmenxia, and Nanyang was significantly correlated with yield; (2) the drought vulnerability of southern and eastern was higher than that of center, western, and northern in the past (2000–2023) and future (2024–2047); (3) there were significant differences in drought thresholds. The yield loss of winter wheat below 30, 50, and 70 percentiles in southern and eastern (past/future) were −1.86/−2.47, −0.85/−1.39, and 0.60/0.35 (Xinyang); −1.45/−2.16, −0.75/−1.34, −0.17/−0.43 (Nanyang); −1.47/−2.24, −0.97/−1.61, 0.69/0.28 (Zhoukou); −2.18/−2.86, −1.80/−2.36, −0.75/−1.08 (Kaifeng), indicating that the drought threshold will reduce in the future. This is mainly due to the different climate and soil conditions in different regions of Henan Province. In the context of future climate change, droughts will be more frequent. Hence, the research results provide a valuable reference for the efficient utilization of agricultural water resources and the prevention and control of drought risk under climate change in the future.