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The transportation sector remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, rendering it one of the most significant energy consumers and a principal contributor to global pollution. In order to reduce emissions, the EU has established reduction targets and adopted new regulations that set emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles. A significant area of focus in recent literature has been the reduction of emissions through the utilisation of low-carbon vehicles. This case study aims to develop a Total Cost of Ownership model for low-carbon heavy-duty vehicles. This has been achieved by employing empirical data and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the viability of the available fuel options. The dataset comprised telemetry data collected from January to October 2023 from a Finnish food logistics company utilising low-carbon fuel options. The findings indicate that, within the context of the studied vehicles, liquid biomethane and electric trucks are currently cost-competitive alternatives. In 82 % of cases, electric vehicle trucks exhibited a lower total cost of ownership than diesel or liquid biomethane trucks. Electric vehicles were best suited for shorter hauls, typically under 390 km, due to their limited range and thus higher cost per kilometre. Contribution of this paper is empirical demonstration showing that liquid biomethane vehicles offer the greatest overall potential for cost and emissions cost savings compared to diesel and is the most technically feasible option, but it also has the most cost uncertainty. • The study compares electric and liquid biogas to diesel vehicles in road freight. • Empirical data from actual implementations of alternative fuels. • Probabilistic TCO model is employed to assess the feasibility of each technology. • Electric and liquid biogas alternatives are feasible in most circumstances. • If used electricity is fossil based, the climate benefits diminish.
Rajalehto et al. (Sat,) studied this question.