Offensive decoupling and realignment of trade in Northeast Asia

Abstract Trade relations between China and its neighboring countries in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have exhibited varying trends of change. Notably, Japan and South Korea have clearly demonstrated a clear shift towards “distancing themselves from China and approaching the United State” in their trade practices. This development trend is in sharp contrast to the prevailing “dual structure” theory that describes the separation of politics and economy in East Asia. As the strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies, Japan and South Korea, as allies of the United States, are increasingly succumbing to American coercion and intensifying efforts to decouple trade with China. The reason why the United States can achieve this goal is twofold: firstly, in the field of security, by strengthening the China threat or regional tensions, it forces Japan and South Korea to increase military spending, forming a confrontational situation and thus compressing the space for cooperation between China, Japan, and South Korea; the second is in the field of economy and trade, using value chains and domestic market opportunities to coerce Japanese and Korean companies to invest in the United States and reduce trade in strategic industries with China. The above-mentioned active decoupling of the United States, Japan, and South Korea from China can be attributed to an offensive strategic decoupling. As long as the United States does not change its positioning as China’s biggest strategic competitor, the economic and trade relations between Japan and South Korea with China will continue to distance further.