National Energy and Climate Plan—Polish Participation in the Implementation of European Climate Policy in the 2040 Perspective and Its Implications for Energy Sustainability

This paper analyses Poland’s participation in implementing European climate policy within the framework of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), looking toward 2040. It assesses the feasibility of Poland’s commitments to the European Union’s decarbonisation targets, particularly with regard to transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and nuclear power. The study highlights the challenges related to the speed of the energy transition, the security of electricity supply, and the competitiveness of the national economy. The study also assesses the energy mix scenarios proposed in the NECP, taking into account historical energy consumption data, economic and demographic projections, and expert analyses of energy security. It also critically examines the risks of delayed investment in nuclear and offshore wind, the potential shortfall in renewable energy infrastructure, and the need for transitional solutions, including coal and gas generation. An alternative scenario is proposed to mitigate potential energy supply shortfalls between 2035 and 2040, highlighting the role of energy storage, strategic reserves, and the maintenance of certain fossil fuel capacities. Poland’s energy policy should prioritize flexibility and synchronization with EU objectives, while ensuring economic stability and technological feasibility. The analysis underlines that the sustainable development of the national energy system requires not only alignment with European climate goals, but also a long-term balance between environmental responsibility, energy affordability, and security. Strengthening the sustainability dimension in energy policy decisions—by integrating resilience, renewability, and social acceptance—is essential to ensure a just and enduring energy transition.