Burning calories, burning ocean: metabolic rate in bivalves as a predictor of extinction selectivity through time and during rapid global warming

Abstract Organismal metabolic rate is linked to environmental temperature and oxygen consumption, and as such, may be a useful predictor of extinction risk. This is especially true during major climate-driven extinctions, given the tightly linked stressors of warming and hypoxia. However, metabolic attributes can be quantified in different ways, highlighting differing aspects of organisms’ ecology. Here, we estimate resting whole-body and mass-specific metabolic rates in post-Carboniferous bivalve taxa using body size, seawater paleotemperature, and a taxon-specific adjustment factor to assess how metabolic rate correlates with survival both during and outside intervals of rapid climate warming, or “hyperthermals.” Accounting for the effects of geographic range size, we find a pattern of preferential extinction of bivalves with lower total calorific needs, consistent with increasing body size and the postulated ramping up of ecosystem energetics over the Meso-Cenozoic. Contrary to expectations, extinction selectivity based on total calorific needs, which emphasizes body size, does not differ between hyperthermals and other time intervals. However, a higher metabolic rate per gram of tissue—which is more strongly determined by environmental temperature than by body size—consistently increases the probability of extinction during hyperthermals relative to baseline conditions, particularly within the paleotropics. This serves to highlight the potential significance of environmental temperature on metabolic performance, particularly in organisms that are already living close to their thermal limits. In tandem with previously documented patterns of extinction selectivity based on relative activity levels, including motility and feeding style, these results enhance our understanding of the role of metabolic rate through time and during climate-driven extinctions. When standardized by mass, metabolic rate may represent a useful metric through which to predict the effects of anthropogenic climate change on modern marine faunas.