Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), has transformed computing, offering potential benefits in the nuclear enterprise, which encompasses weapons, delivery systems, platforms, and command and control infrastructure. While AI can enhance efficiency in areas like predictive maintenance and operational planning, its integration into the nuclear enterprise poses significant risks, some of which are inherent in the nature of ML. Five principles should guide AI’s responsible application in a nuclear weapons context: maintaining meaningful human control in nuclear decision-making processes; evaluating AI risks within a nation’s broader nuclear posture; recognizing the challenges of verifying international agreements on AI restrictions; managing risks through self-imposed limitations; and leveraging AI to enhance human oversight. While AI offers opportunities to improve nuclear surety and operational efficiency in areas like planning and predictive maintenance, its deployment must prioritize minimizing catastrophic risks and preserving human judgment in critical decision-making processes.