Sustainability Analysis of the Global Hydrogen Trade Network from a Resilience Perspective: A Risk Propagation Model Based on Complex Networks

Hydrogen is being increasingly integrated into the international trade system as a clean and flexible energy carrier, motivated by the global energy transition and carbon neutrality objectives. The rapid expansion of the global hydrogen trade network has simultaneously exposed several sustainability challenges, including a centralized structure, overdependence on key countries, and limited resilience to external disruptions. Based on this, we develop a risk propagation model that incorporates the absorption capacity of nodes to simulate the propagation of supply shortage risks within the global hydrogen trade network. Furthermore, we propose a composite sustainability index constructed from structural, economic, and environmental resilience indicators, enabling a systematic assessment of the network’s sustainable development capacity under external shock scenarios. Findings indicate the following: (1) The global hydrogen trade network is undergoing a structural shift from a Western Europe-dominated unipolar configuration to a more polycentric pattern. Countries such as China and Singapore are emerging as key hubs linking Eurasian regions, with trade relationships among nations becoming increasingly dense and diversified. (2) Although supply shortage shocks trigger structural disturbances, economic losses, and risks of carbon rebound, their impacts are largely concentrated in a limited number of hub countries, with relatively limited disruption to the overall sustainability of the system. (3) Countries exhibit significant heterogeneity in structural, economic, and environmental resilience. Risk propagation demonstrates an uneven pattern characterized by hub-induced disruptions, chain-like transmission, and localized clustering. Accordingly, policy recommendations are proposed, including the establishment of a polycentric coordination mechanism, the enhancement of regional emergency coordination mechanisms, and the advancement of differentiated capacity-building efforts.