Shipping network disruption, vulnerability and resilience amidst geopolitical tensions

Purpose The research aims to analyze the consequences of disruption caused to shipping networks by geopolitical tensions by examining shipping network vulnerability and resilience using the case of the Red Sea crisis. Design/methodology/approach Our research proposes the Vessel-Trade route-Port-call (VTP) framework for analyzing from the supply-side perspective. The approach utilizes information from three crucial components of shipping services, which are vessels employed, trade route served and ports-of-call involved. The study examines shipping alliance behavior using shipping services as the unit of analysis. Findings Traditional major shipping lanes that go through the Suez Canal and Red Sea are vulnerable to disruption. While shipping connections are kept between geographical regions, many services switched to the Cape of Good Hope route. Most changes were made by April since the disruptions began in November 2023. Resilience in the shipping network is demonstrated by all three alliances deploying additional containerships and reducing port-calls to maintain their service frequency, with comparatively fewer changes to annualized vessel slot capacity offered. The most vulnerable port regions are those located in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Research limitations/implications Resilience strategies by shipping alliances from the perspective of shipping service, vessel employment, trade route and port-call offers practical implications for shipping lines, port managers, policy makers and researchers. Originality/value This research proposes an original framework to analyze shipping network resilience and vulnerability due to disruption caused by geopolitical tensions. Analysis using empirical data from the vessel, trade route and port-call perspectives offers new insights on shipping network vulnerability and resilience through the behavior of shipping alliances.