This study evaluates the impact of national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in China on inter-provincial and international carbon emission transfers using a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, incorporating production- and consumption-based accounting, regional trade linkages, and carbon market mechanisms. Significant regional disparities in emissions reductions and economic impacts are identified, particularly between northern and southern provinces divided by the Qinling-Huaihe Line. Northern provinces achieve greater production-side emission reductions and experience lower marginal abatement costs than southern provinces, reflecting industrial structural differences. The ETS notably eliminates production- and consumption-side emissions, with greater effects on production-side emissions due to higher supply-side responsiveness. Carbon trading significantly lowers net carbon transfers in inter-provincial and international trade, though regional heterogeneity remains. A novel carbon trading terms index highlights regional variations in carbon balances, underscoring the necessity for differentiated regional carbon targets, inter-provincial compensation, and targeted mitigation strategies addressing structural disparities.
Zhang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.