A Scenario Assessment of Sustainable Electricity Strategies toward China's 2060 Carbon Neutrality Target

This paper assesses the impacts of long-term electricity pathways to achieve China's carbon neutrality target for the period 2023-2060. For this purpose, three scenarios (BAU, CNCM, and CNIM) are developed to represent different levels of zero-carbon energy penetration. These scenarios are analyzed using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model for the period 2023-2060 to assess their implications for China's electricity transition. The analyses revealed that a greater share of zero-carbon energy in electricity generation would bring various notable benefits, including greater diversification of the energy supply, reduced dependence on fossil fuel imports, decreased reliance on conventional energy sources, and cleaner electricity generation. Despite the considerable benefits, China's electricity transition would face several challenges, namely centralized infrastructure, land use conflicts, and workforce displacement risks. The Chinese government addresses these challenges through smart grid upgrades, energy storage investments, and market reforms to boost the private sector involvement in electricity generation. In addition, building on current policies, this paper proposes three complementary strategies to accelerate China's energy transition, including power grid modernization (digitalization and flexible infrastructure), land-use optimization (integrated spatial planning), and labor transition safeguards (reskilling programs, and regional economic diversification). A coordinated implementation of these strategies is critical for achieving a carbon-neutral energy system that balances technical feasibility and social equity.