Machine Learning Forecasting of Commercial Buildings’ Energy Consumption Using Euclidian Distance Matrices

Governments worldwide have set ambitious targets for decarbonising energy grids, driving the need for increased renewable energy generation and improved energy efficiency. One key strategy for achieving this involves enhanced energy management in buildings, often using machine learning-based forecasting methods. However, such methods typically rely on extensive historical data collected via costly sensor installations—resources that many buildings lack. This study introduces a novel forecasting approach that eliminates the need for large-scale historical datasets or expensive sensors. By integrating custom-built models with existing energy data, the method applies calculated weighting through a distance matrix and accuracy coefficients to generate reliable forecasts. It uses readily available building attributes—such as floor area and functional type to position a new building within the matrix of existing data. A Euclidian distance matrix, akin to a K-nearest neighbour algorithm, determines the appropriate neural network(s) to utilise. These findings are benchmarked against a consolidated, more sophisticated neural network and a long short-term memory neural network. The dataset has hourly granularity over a 24 h horizon. The model consists of five bespoke neural networks, demonstrating the superiority of other models with a 610 s training duration, uses 500 kB of storage, achieves an R2 of 0.9, and attains an average forecasting accuracy of 85.12% in predicting the energy consumption of the five buildings studied. This approach not only contributes to the specific goal of a fully decarbonized energy grid by 2050 but also establishes a robust and efficient methodology for maintaining standards with existing benchmarks while providing more control over the method.