China's strategic opportunity in the era of ‘America First’

Abstract The return of Donald Trump and his ‘America First’ foreign policy signals a fundamental reorientation of US global engagement, creating what Chinese President Xi Jinping has called ‘great changes unseen in a century’. Assessing the global landscape as defined by the concurrent US descent and Chinese ascendance, the Chinese leadership views this as a historic opportunity for China to engineer a strategic environment favourable to building an alternative international order. China's strategy rests on four interconnected pillars: Pillar 1: Avoiding direct military confrontation with the United States China has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal to ensure credible second-strike capabilities to deter potential US military action, while verbally assuring that it has no intention to challenge American primacy. Pillar 2: Weakening US alliance networks China leverages US allies' economic dependencies while portraying itself as a champion of free trade and economic globalization, in contrast to America's increasingly unilateral protectionism. Pillar 3: Coordinating loosely with revisionist powers China maintains a calculated distance with revisionist powers like Russia, North Korea and Iran—close enough to divert US capabilities but far enough to preserve influence over US allies who seek China's help in restraining these regional threats. Pillar 4: Cultivating support among global South states China courts the global South by presenting an alternative international order that emphasizes absolute sovereignty, economic development and ‘democratized’ international relations—principles that directly challenge US hegemony and appeal to states with historical grievances against western imperialism. If the United States abandons liberal values and disregards its commitments to its allies, more states will be increasingly drawn to China's vision of an alternative international order, thereby further undermining US global leadership. The United States faces a strategic trilemma between championing liberal values worldwide, counterbalancing China and preventing overstretch. America's choice to prioritize military retrenchment and competition with China at the expense of promoting liberal values risks undermining the legitimacy of US hegemony.