Lockdown and Rural Joblessness in India: Gender Inequality in Employment?

ABSTRACT: India implemented one of the most stringent COVID-19 lockdowns globally, disrupting livelihoods across sectors. Women, especially those from marginalized communities and in informal employment, appeared disproportionately affected. This study investigates how the lockdown impacted female employment, particularly among return migrants, using rural data from six Indian states during March–May 2020. We utilize World Bank survey data from rural areas in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal collected during the national lockdown (March–May 2020). A binary employment outcome—whether the respondent was employed or not—is modeled using logit specifications, with marginal effects estimated for key subgroups. Employment includes both wage and self-employment. We assess differential effects by gender, caste, and migration status, incorporating interaction terms to evaluate overlapping vulnerabilities. The role of self-help group (SHG) participation is also examined. The analysis emphasizes female return migrants and marginalized caste groups to identify the intersectional impacts of the employment shock. Women were 8 percentage points less likely than men to be employed during the lockdown. This employment gap widened among marginalized groups, with Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, and Other Backward Class women experiencing an even higher probability of joblessness—between 9 and 14 percentage points. Return migrants were more likely to find work at the source, but female return migrants had a 17-percentage point higher likelihood of being unemployed. For female SC return migrants, the likelihood was 10 percentage points higher. Participation in SHGs showed limited mitigation effects. The findings underscore that female migrant worker, particularly from disadvantaged castes, bore the brunt of the employment fallout, indicating acute gender and social inequalities exacerbated by the lockdown. The findings suggest that policies should strengthen income protection during future crises. Enhancing access to SHGs and formal safety nets can provide additional buffers for economically vulnerable women during systemic shocks.