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September 10, 2025

Quantifying Fair Share Carbon Budgets

AJAndrew L. JacksonTrinity College Dublin OKOrla KelleherNational University of Ireland, Maynooth

Key Points

Countries must identify their fair share carbon budgets to limit global heating to 1.5°C, impacting international climate commitments.
The EU's advisory body indicated that its fair share of carbon budget has been exhausted under various fair share principles.
Debate continues over equitable distribution of remaining carbon budgets, particularly in light of the KlimaSeniorinnen judgment.
Quantifying fair share obligations should be approached with a reduced margin of appreciation acknowledged in the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling.

Abstract

An obligation to quantify each country’s fair share of the remaining global carbon budget associated with limiting global heating to 1.5°C flows from the judgment in KlimaSeniorinnen. While there will naturally be debate about what represents a country’s fair share – the EU’s independent advisory body ESAB recently considered a range of fair share principles and concluded that the EU’s fair share has already been used up under many of these – the obligation to quantify fair share budgets should, in our view, be the subject of a reduced margin of appreciation consistent with KlimaSeniorinnen.

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