A Regional High Resolution AI Weather Model for the Prediction of Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation

Abstract Accurate precipitation forecasting often relies on high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are essential for capturing fine-scale and nonlinear atmospheric dynamics. However, the computational demands of these models can be substantial. Leveraging recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), we present a stretched-grid AI-driven weather model with 6-km horizontal grid increments over the Western United States and approximately 31-km in other regions globally. The model employs an autoregressive framework to generate forecasts in minutes and is evaluated against global and regional NWP systems, as well as a lower-resolution AI model. Our results show that the regional AI model reduces 24-hour accumulated precipitation errors, performs competitively with the regional NWP model, and effectively captures extreme precipitation events, particularly those linked to atmospheric rivers, which global coarser models often underestimate. This work underscores the potential of regional, high-resolution AI models for precipitation forecasting at km-scales, and discusses some of the challenges for future development.