Mathematical Modeling of Dengue Virus Transmission Using a Host-Vector SEIR-SEI Model

Dengue fever has emerged as a significant public health concern in Bangladesh, with a marked increase in fatalities in recent years. To analyze its transmission dynamics, this study introduces a compartmental mathematical model combining the SIER (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) framework for the human population and the SEI (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious) model for the mosquito vector population. The model identifies equilibrium points and calculates the basic reproduction number (R₀), a critical threshold parameter that determines whether the disease will spread or die out. Conditions leading to both disease-free and endemic equilibria are established, with the stability of these points shown to be dependent on the value of R₀ to estimate the infection rate, data on infected individuals were collected from various health institutions across Bangladesh. Using MATLAB, numerical simulations were conducted to explore the impact of key parameters on disease transmission and to validate the analytical findings. The study concludes by identifying the most sensitive parameter influencing R₀, providing insights for targeted intervention strategies.