Urban Growth and River Course Dynamics: Disconnected Floodplain and Urban Flood Risk in Manohara Watershed, Nepal

Human activities and river course change have a complex reciprocal interaction. The river channel is altered by human activity, and these alterations have an impact on the activities and settlements along the riverbank. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and changes in river morphology is crucial for effective river management, safeguarding the urban environment, and mitigating flood hazards. In this context, this study has been conducted to investigate the interrelationship between morphological dynamics, built-up growth, and urban flood risk along the Manohara River in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The Sinuosity Index was used to analyze variation in river courses and instability from 1996 to 2023. Built-up change analysis is carried out using supervised maximum likelihood classification method and rate of change is calculated for built-up area growth (2003–2023) and building construction between 2003 and 2021. Flood hazard risk manning was carried out using flood frequency estimation method integrating HEC-GeoRAS modeling. Linear regression and spatial overlay analysis was carried out to examine the interrelationship between river morphology, urban growth, and fold hazed risk. In recent years (2016–2023), the Manohara River has straightened, particularly after 2011. Before 2011, it had significant meandering with pronounced curves and bends, indicating a mature river system. However, the SI value of 1.45 in 2023 and 1.80 in 2003 indicates a significant straightening of high meandering over 20 years. A flood hazard modeling carried out within the active floodplain of the Manohara River shows that 26.4% of the area is under high flood risk and 21% is under moderate risk. Similarly, over 10 years from 2006 to 2016, the rate of built-up change was found to be 9.11, while it was 7.9 between 2011 and 2021. The calculated R2 value of 0.7918 at a significance level of 0.05 (with a p value of 0.0175, and a standard error value of 0.07877) indicates a strong positive relationship between decreasing sinuosity and increasing built-up, which demonstrates the effect of built-up expansion on river morphology, particularly the anthropogenic activities of encroachment and haphazard constructions, mining, dumping wastes, and squatter settlements along the active floodplain, causing instability on the river course and hence, lateral shift. The riverbank and active floodplain are not defined scientifically, which leads to the invasion of the river area. These activities, together with land use alteration in the floodplain, show an increased risk of flood hazards and other natural calamities. Therefore, sustainable protection measures must be prioritized in the active floodplain and flood risk areas, taking into account upstream–downstream linkages and chain effects caused by interaction between natural and adverse anthropogenic activities.