A Citizen Science Approach for Documenting Mass Coral Bleaching in the Western Indian Ocean

During rapid-onset environmental catastrophes, scientists may not always have sufficient time to conduct proper environmental surveys in all representative areas. Although coral bleaching events can be predicted to a certain extent in some areas by tracking sea surface temperatures (SSTs), current models from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch tend to underestimate severity of bleaching in the Indian Ocean, as was evident in March 2024 when corals began bleaching after only experiencing 1–2 degree-heating weeks. To characterize the impacts of this event, I conducted citizen science-style surveys at 22 sites along a 600-km stretch of the Kenyan coastline. Thereafter, I trained an artificial intelligence (AI) to extract coral abundance and bleaching data from 2300 coral reef images spanning 11–12 hectares of reef area to estimate both coral cover and bleaching prevalence. The AI’s accuracy was >80%, though it was prone to false-positive bleaching classifications. Bleaching severity varied significantly across sites, as well as over time, as seawater continued to warm over the duration of the study period; on average, over 75% of all reef-building scleractinians had bleached. Across the 22 sites, the mean healthy coral cover was only 7–8%, vs. >30% at sites in the same areas in the late 1990s. Whether these corals can recover, and then withstand such heatwaves in the future, will be known all too soon.