The Influence of War on the Agricultural Production of Ukraine: Analysis and Projection Scenarios

Abstract Ukraine is one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters, which plays a critical role in the oilseeds and grains supply to the global market. Though serious economic constraints and ecological problems have had a huge impact on the country’s agricultural production. The following methods and tools of the scientific research were used in the research: empirical and comparative analyses, statistical analysis, including time series analysis, modelling and forecasting, the method of trends as well as textual and tabular methods added by bar charts for better data presentation and comparison, the OLS regression, etc. The agriculture of Ukraine faces a lot of challenges, among which, in particular, is the fact, that the Ukrainian agricultural producers are forced to reduce the production of the most productive types of products, such as wheat and corn, due to the logistical problems of the agricultural products exporting and the decrease of the purchase price. The agricultural economy sector of Ukraine enjoys a high adaptivity level, being resilient and flexible enough to withstand, overcome, adapt, making necessary changes, to such a shock as the war, in order to function successfully under the everchanging conditions, which is a pre-requisite to the fast restoration of the country in general and its regions/towns/villages in particular not only in the after-war but in the during-war periods as well.