The young, the radical and the dissatisfied: the transformation of the Portuguese right-wing electorate in the 21 st century

This article examines the evolution of Portugal's right-wing electorate from 2002 to 2024. For decades following its democratic transition, Portugal stood as a unique case in Europe, with political competition largely structured around socio-economic issues and the consistent electoral failure of radical right parties. However, since 2019, the rise of two new right-wing parties – Chega and Liberal Initiative – signals significant change. Having been dominated by one party since the transition to democracy, the right ideological bloc has undergone fragmentation as well as increasing polarisation. Our analysis shows that the emergence of the new right-wing parties has profoundly transformed patterns of voting behaviour through the mobilisation of distinct electorates, particularly younger and more dissatisfied voters.