Analysis of tobacco production in Indonesia: A deterministic approach

Improving production input efficiency is crucial for enhancing productivity and sustainability in Indonesia’s tobacco farming. This study examined the effects of land area, number of seeds, fertiliser use, pesticide application, and labour on tobacco production using multiple linear regression with natural logarithm transformation. Data were collected from tobacco farmers in East Java, Central Java, and West Nusa Tenggara through purposive sampling. The results showed that land area negatively affected tobacco production (β = -0.242, p = 0.0001), indicating inefficiency on larger land areas, possibly due to uneven land quality or problems in land management. In contrast, number of seeds (β = 0.512, p < 0.0001), fertiliser use (β = 0.206, p < 0.0001), and pesticide application (β = 0.139, p < 0.0001) had a positive and significant effect on yield. Labor had no significant effect (β = 0.0003, p = 0.9819), although it made a small contribution to production efficiency. Most farmers manage small to medium scale land (10.5% own 0.30 ha), plant 8,500 seedlings (8.4%), and use 600 kg of fertiliser (8.1%) and 400 ml of pesticide (11.7%). This emphasises the significance of efficient input allocation to support greater productivity. Additionally, the findings reflect farmers' tendency to manage resources conservatively due to cost or knowledge constraints. Overall, these findings confirmed the need to optimise the use of inputs, especially quality seeds, and efficient use of fertilisers and pesticides, to increase productivity while reducing adverse environmental impact and supporting the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. The present study recommended adopting agricultural technology, farmer training, and crop diversification to improve productivity