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August 18, 2025Open Access

“Ukraine may be East Asia Tomorrow”: Russia, Japan, and the End of a “Pivot” to the East

PRPaul B. RichardsonUniversity of Birmingham

Key Points

Russo-Japanese relations have deteriorated over two decades, primarily due to unresolved territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions.
The efforts of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to build a new relationship with Russia have been largely unsuccessful, impacting bilateral cooperation.
The invasion of Ukraine has significantly affected russo-japanese relations, altering the balance regarding Russia’s supposed pivot to Asia.
This analysis emphasizes the consequences of missed opportunities for resolution between Russia and Japan in light of recent geopolitical changes.

Abstract

Abstract This paper charts the dynamics of Russo-Japanese relations over the last two decades. It covers the lost opportunities to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute over the Southern Kurils/Northern Territories, the fruitless efforts of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to form a qualitatively new relationship with Russia, and the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine for Russo-Japan relations and its wider implications on Russia’s “pivot” to Asia.

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