The potential impact of the next-generation COVID-19 mRNA-1283 vaccine in Canada

With continued high disease burden in vulnerable groups and fiscal responsibility shifting to Canada's jurisdictions, assessing the economic value of COVID-19 vaccines is critical for optimizing COVID-19 prevention. This study estimated the public health impact and economically justifiable price (EJP) of Moderna's next-generation COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1283) versus no vaccination in Canada, and relative to currently authorized vaccines (mRNA-1273; BNT-162b2). The target population included individuals aged ≥65 years and 12-64 years at high-risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, consistent with 2025/2026 national guidelines. Analyses were conducted using a static decision-analytic model (1-year horizon) from a publicly funded healthcare payer perspective. Vaccine efficacy against infection and hospitalization for mRNA-1283 versus no 2024/2025 vaccination was based on mRNA-1283's pivotal trial and mRNA-1273 real-world data. Clinical outcomes included infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and number needed to vaccinate (NNV) ; economic outcomes included total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and EJP at a 50, 000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to no vaccine, annual vaccination with mRNA-1283 prevented 288, 912 symptomatic infections (NNV = 15), 11, 710 hospitalizations (NNV = 364), and 2, 194 deaths (NNV = 1, 944). The EJP for mRNA-1283 was 325 (230-771 in sensitivity analyses). Semi-annual dosing (≥65 or ≥80 years) averted additional hospitalizations and deaths compared to annual vaccination. mRNA-1283 prevented an additional 2, 873-3, 689 hospitalizations and 537-690 deaths compared to currently authorized vaccines. EJPs for mRNA-1283 were 78 and 103 when compared to mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, respectively. This study does not include indirect effects, and mRNA-1283 effectiveness has not yet been validated in real-world studies. VE waning and incidence estimates are highly uncertain. British and American estimates were used as Canadian data proxies. mRNA-1283 could reduce the COVID-19 clinical burden and provide economic value for the NACI-recommended population, exceeding current mRNA vaccines; COVID-19 program planners may consider supporting access to mRNA-1283 to optimize public health impact.