Quantitative Risk Assessment and Tiered Classification of Indoor Airborne Infection Based on the REHVA Model: Application to Multiple Real-World Scenarios

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for a scientific framework that enables quantitative assessment and control of airborne infection risks in indoor environments. This study identifies limitations in the traditional Wells–Riley model—specifically its assumptions of perfect mixing and steady-state conditions—and addresses these shortcomings by adopting the REHVA (Federation of European Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Associations) infection risk assessment model. We propose a five-tier risk classification system (Monitor, Caution, Alert, High Risk, Critical) based on two key metrics: the probability of infection (Pₙ) and the event reproduction number (Rₑvent). Unlike the classical model, our approach integrates airborne virus removal mechanisms—such as natural decay, gravitational settling, and filtration—with occupant dynamics to reflect realistic contagion scenarios. Simulations were conducted across 10 representative indoor settings—such as classrooms, hospital waiting rooms, public transit, and restaurants—considering ventilation rates and activity-specific viral emission patterns. The results quantify how environmental variables (ventilation, occupancy, time) impact each setting’s infection risk level. Our findings indicate that static mitigation measures such as mask-wearing or physical distancing are insufficient without dynamic, model-based risk evaluation. We emphasize the importance of incorporating real-time crowd density, occupancy duration, and movement trajectories into risk scoring. To support this, we propose integrating computer vision (CCTV-based crowd detection) and entry/exit counting sensors within a live airborne risk assessment framework. This integrated system would enable proactive, science-driven epidemic control strategies, supporting real-time adaptive interventions in indoor spaces. The proposed platform could serve as a practical tool for early warning and management during future airborne disease outbreaks.