Is it time for a more analytical approach? Suboptimal shot selection strategies in handball

Increased use of analytics in sports has shed some light on various suboptimal strategies that have long been considered the norm. While sports such as basketball and baseball have adapted to a changing landscape, handball seems slow to adapt. The aim of this study was to examine i) the prevalence of high- and low-probability shots in semi-professional handball, ii) whether taking high-probability shots was associated with winning and iii) whether there were any differences between the men's and women's leagues. Six seasons in the Icelandic elite division were analyzed using a mixed-effects logistic regression model (1410 games, 879 games in the men's league and 531 games in the women's league). The study found that low-probability shots outnumbered high-probability shots (54.1% to 45.9%) and that high-probability shots were associated with winning (odds ratio of 1.46, compared to odds ratio of 0.73 in the low-probability shots). This was especially pronounced in the women's league (odds ratio of 1.77, compared to an odds ratio of 1.20 in the means league). These findings suggest that some handball teams could enhance their performance by focusing on creating high-probability shots. However, the success of such efforts depends not only on the attacking team's tactics but also on the defensive strategies employed by their opponents, which significantly influence the quality of scoring opportunities. Ultimately, the interplay between offensive and defensive approaches dictates the frequency and feasibility of high-probability shots.